The Archer of Decision-Making
In my last article, I described the three characteristics I have consistently seen in great decision makers: principles, humility, and decisiveness.
This article expands on those ideas.
I have spent more than four decades involved in high-stakes decision-making.
It began as a fighter pilot in combat and continued as I led tens of thousands of warfighters as a general officer in Afghanistan. Later, I served in the defense of North America, helping lead the decision-making processes responsible for protecting the continent, from the Arctic Circle to the Mexico-Guatemala border and the approaches from both oceans.
The threats were complex and constant: nuclear deterrence, air defense, cyber threats, counterterrorism, counterdrug operations, and responses to natural disasters like hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and pandemics.
Over the past decade, I have worked in higher education, helping universities make similarly consequential decisions affecting tens of thousands of students, faculty, and staff across multiple campuses and countries.
While the environments are very different, the nature of the decisions often feels remarkably similar: uncertainty, time pressure, competing priorities, and real consequences.
Across those forty years, I have noticed something about the leaders who consistently make the best decisions.
They tend to share three attributes.
First, they are guided by principles.
Second, they are humble enough to seek advice when facing hard choices.
Third, and most importantly, they are decisive.
The Archer
One way I like to visualize the decision-making process is through the image of an archer.
Picture an archer standing with a bow and arrow, aiming at a target in the distance.
The decision itself is the arrow striking the target. Decisiveness is what allows the arrow to cut through confusion and chaos and land where it needs to.
But before that arrow ever leaves the bow, the archer must account for several critical factors.
Aim: Principles
First, the archer must aim.
This is where principles come into play.
Principles provide the initial direction. They orient the decision maker toward the right target before all the other variables come into play. All the other options become irrelevant because they aren't in line with who we are as a leader and an organization.
Experience and pattern recognition help refine that aim. Just like an archer adjusts for wind, distance, or movement, leaders adjust their thinking based on new information, competing risks, or changing conditions.
But the starting point, the thing that points the bow in the right direction, is a clear set of guiding principles.
Draw: Humility
Second, the archer must draw the bow.
Pulling back the bow adds energy and potential to the shot, but a single person can only pull the bow back so far. To get the bow all the way back, you have to get others involved.
In leadership, this represents the process of engaging the organization. It means bringing in advisors, gathering information, activating resources, and energizing the people who help shape the decision. You fully empower the bow.
Good leaders know they do not make difficult decisions in isolation.
They create the conditions where expertise, insight, and honest debate strengthen the final choice.
Caveat: As the decision-maker, you are responsible. While the input of advisors can help, the wisdom of the crowd can be wrong. Crowds often think in extremes, and their advice may come from there. Balance and recognition that it is your responsibility are a path to better decisions.
Release: Decisiveness
But there is a moment when preparation must end, and that is usually before you are totally comfortable.
The archer can stand there with perfect aim and a fully drawn bow, but if the arrow is never released, nothing happens.
That final step is decisiveness.
At some point, the leader must let the arrow fly.
The decision will not be perfect. Conditions will change. New information will appear.
But progress only happens when the arrow is released.
The Balance of Great Decision Makers
The best decision makers understand this balance.
They aim with principles.
They draw with humility.
And when the moment comes, they release the arrow with decisiveness.
